How often judges grant compassionate release (2025)

What numbers did the Commission publish?

In April 2025, the U.S. Sentencing Commission published preliminary numbers for October 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025. Of 1,381 compassionate release motions decided, judges granted 210 (15.2 percent) and denied 1,171 (84.8 percent). (The Commission received 1,416 cases but could not tell the outcome in 35.)

Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission, FY25 Q2 Compassionate Release. These are statistics about other people's cases. They do not predict any one person's result.

What did courts cite in that window?

Judges often gave more than one reason. For the 210 grants, the Commission counted 318 reasons. The most common were rehabilitation (54 times, always alongside another reason), an unusually long sentence plus a change in law (43), a serious physical or medical condition (40), and terminal illness (18).

For denials, the most common reasons were the sentencing factors in 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) (25.4 percent of reasons given), no extraordinary and compelling reason (11.6 percent), and rehabilitation not enough (9.5 percent).

Do those grant reasons still work?

Not all of them. These numbers come from before May 28, 2026. Since then, Rutherford v. United States holds that a sentencing change Congress did not make retroactive cannot be a reason, and Fernandez v. United States holds that a claim of innocence belongs in a 2255 motion. Good conduct still cannot be the only reason (28 U.S.C. § 994(t)). Medical, age, family, and abuse-in-custody reasons still apply. See eligibility.

What else did the report say about who was granted?

More than half (51.5 percent) of the people granted had original sentences of 20 years or more. That describes those cases. It is not a rule for a new motion.

Our original 2025 article on this report

Original page last updated July 21, 2025. Statements about the law were updated in October 2026; the box below gives today’s rules.

What the law says now (October 2026). A federal judge can reduce a sentence for “extraordinary and compelling” reasons (reasons that are especially unusual and convincing). You must first ask the warden in writing. You can file in court 30 days after the warden gets the request, or sooner if you finish the Bureau of Prisons’ appeals (18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A)). The judge also weighs the sentencing factors in 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a). See who may seek compassionate release.

Changes in sentencing law. In Rutherford v. United States (May 28, 2026), the Supreme Court held that when Congress makes a sentencing change non-retroactive (meaning it does not apply to people already sentenced), such as the First Step Act’s end of “stacked” § 924(c) sentences, the gap between an old sentence and today’s sentence cannot be an “extraordinary and compelling” reason, alone or combined with other reasons. Some older posts here describe court wins on that theory; those wins are history, not today’s law.
Rehabilitation. By law, rehabilitation alone is not an extraordinary and compelling reason (28 U.S.C. § 994(t)). It can be weighed together with other reasons (U.S.S.G. § 1B1.13(d)).
COVID-19 and outbreaks. Today a court looks at whether the prison is affected, or at imminent risk of being affected, by an ongoing infectious disease outbreak or public health emergency, and whether the person faces a higher risk of severe illness or death that cannot be reduced in time (U.S.S.G. § 1B1.13(b)(1)(D)).
The Sentencing Commission’s policy statement. Since November 1, 2023, U.S.S.G. § 1B1.13 applies to motions filed by prisoners as well as by the Bureau of Prisons, and a reduction must be consistent with it (18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A)). Posts from 2020–2023 that say courts were “not bound” by it describe the law before that date. Rutherford (2026) held the policy statement invalid to the extent it lets a non-retroactive change in law count as a reason.

In April 2025, the U.S. Sentencing Commission published preliminary data on compassionate release motions decided by federal judges from October 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025. It covers motions under 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(1)(A). (Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission, FY25 Q2 Compassionate Release Data Report.)

The Commission received 1,416 cases but could not tell the outcome in 35. Of the remaining 1,381 motions, judges granted 210 (15.2 percent) and denied 1,171 (84.8 percent).

Who was granted? More than half (51.5 percent) of the people granted had original sentences of 20 years or more. Another 25.7 percent had 10 to 20 years, 8.3 percent had 5 to 10 years, 10.7 percent had 2 to 5 years, 3.4 percent had 1 to 2 years, and 0.5 percent had less than one year.

Reasons judges gave for granting

Judges often gave more than one reason. For the 210 grants, the Commission counted 318 reasons. The most common were:

Rehabilitation: 54 times (17.0 percent). Every time, the judge also gave another reason.
Unusually long sentence and a change in law: 43 times (13.5 percent).
Serious physical or medical condition: 40 times (12.6 percent).
Terminal illness: 18 times (5.7 percent).
Family circumstances: caring for a parent 11 times (3.5 percent); caring for a minor or disabled child 9 times (2.8 percent).
Age 65 with declining health and 10 years or 75 percent served: 7 times (2.2 percent).

These numbers come from before May 28, 2026. Since then, the Supreme Court held in Rutherford v. United States that a sentencing change Congress did not make retroactive cannot be an "extraordinary and compelling" reason, alone or combined with other reasons. And by law, rehabilitation alone is not a reason (28 U.S.C. § 994(t)), though it can count together with other reasons (U.S.S.G. § 1B1.13(d)).

Reasons judges gave for denying

For the 1,171 denials, the most common reasons were:

The sentencing factors in 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) (the judge found that things like the crime and public safety outweighed the reasons for release): 25.4 percent of reasons given.
No extraordinary and compelling reason: 11.6 percent.
Rehabilitation not enough: 9.5 percent.
Did not ask the warden first or wait 30 days: 8.4 percent.
Not enough proof of a serious medical condition: 6.7 percent.
Not at risk from COVID-19: 5.1 percent.
Able to care for themselves in prison: 4.9 percent.

Judges look closely at these motions. Many are denied because of the sentencing factors, because the reason is not strong enough, or because the proof is missing.

What this means for your family

Compassionate release is still uncommon: about 15 percent of motions were granted in this period. Motions that succeed usually have strong records behind them. These are statistics about other people's cases and do not predict any one result. To talk about your family's situation, book a consultation.